Chianti, Amarone, and Prosecco: the wines most at risk from US tariffs

The list of wines most at risk from potential US tariffs is quickly drawn up. This was revealed by Cia-Agricoltori Italiani during the tenth economic conference held in Rome on Wednesday, 12 March. The wines at risk include Amarone, Chianti, Barbera, Friulano, Ribolla, and Prosecco. All of these products are particularly exposed to the potential trade war that could erupt between the European Union and the United States starting in April. However, the losses would not stop there—Pecorino Romano cheese and Italian-made apple cider would also be affected. For this reason, according to Cia President Cristiano Fini, a “strong diplomatic effort” is necessary to avoid jeopardising the progress achieved so far.

The analysis of Made in Italy wines

The United States is the world’s leading market in terms of value for Italian wine, totalling €1.9 billion (2024 data). The Cia analysis, based on Nomisma data, identifies certain wines as being more dependent on the US than others. The most reliant are the white PDO wines from Trentino-Alto Adige and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, which account for 48% of their exports and reached a value of €138 million in 2024. Following them are Tuscan red PDO wines (40%, €290 million), Piedmontese red PDO wines (31%, €121 million), and Prosecco PDO (27%, €491 million). These are significant figures, Cia points out, and any tariffs could disrupt this balance, opening the door for competitors such as Argentinian Malbec, Australian Shiraz, and Chilean Merlot.

“A negotiation” with Trump

The agricultural export sector to the US has grown by 158% over the past ten years, the farmers' association recalls. “Today, the United States is the second-largest market worldwide for Italian food and wine, reaching €7.8 billion in 2024,” Fini explained. Even for Italian olive oil, the US market is crucial, accounting for 32% of exports (€937 million in 2024), although it is considered less replaceable in American shopping habits. Italian liqueurs are also significantly exposed, with 26% of their exports (€143 million) going to the US. In contrast, Parmigiano Reggiano and Grana Padano are less dependent on the US market, with a 17% share of their combined exports (€253 million), as are pasta and baked goods, which make up 13% of their export value (€1.1 billion).

According to Cia, the Italian government must “lead Europe in opening negotiations with President Trump, given that we have the most at stake. The US accounts for nearly 12% of our total global agri-food exports,” President Fini noted. “Italy tops the list of EU countries in this regard, ahead of Germany (2.5%), Spain (4.7%), and France (6.7%).”

Pecorino Romano Dop

Apple cider and Pecorino Romano

With a market value of €109 million in 2024, apple cider derives 72% of its revenue from the US and is, in fact, the most vulnerable Italian agri-food product should tariffs be imposed. In second place is Pecorino Romano PDO, for which the US accounts for 57% of total exports (€151 million). Both apple cider and Pecorino Romano are highly sought after by the food industry. Apple cider is one of the most popular beverages among millennials, while Sardinian sheep’s cheese is widely used as a seasoning for crisps. If a 25% tariff were imposed, the US snack industry, worth €2.5 billion, could “replace Pecorino,” warns Cia, “with cheaper alternative dairy products”. As a result, these tariffs could significantly cut into their market, with losses that would be difficult to offset elsewhere.

The most exposed regions

Sardinia and Tuscany are considered the two most vulnerable Italian regions in the event of a trade war between the EU and the US. Their agri-food exports are particularly exposed. In Sardinia, which produces over 90% of Pecorino Romano PDO, 49% of total sales are in the US, and the US market accounts for 74% of the island’s total dairy exports.

The second most exposed region to the US market is Tuscany, with 28% of its agri-food exports heading across the Atlantic. The most at-risk product is Tuscan olive oil (42% of its exports), followed by Tuscan wines (33%). The Lazio region also exports 58% of its olive oil to the US, while 28% of Abruzzo’s pasta and baked goods and 26% of Campania’s wine exports go to the US as well.

Summing up, agri-food exports from central and southern Italy face the greatest risks from Trump’s proposed tariffs.