"Dangerous to underestimate US tariffs on wine: 98% of Italian exports at risk." The warning from Unione Italiana Vini

The introduction of 25% tariffs on EU products in the United States could damage Italian wine by approximately 470 million euros due to the direct impact on demand alone, without considering the indirect effects on global exports, which could push the total to one billion euros. Unione Italiana Vini, through its Observatory, once again raises concerns about the Italian wine sector and responds to those who, in recent weeks, have claimed that Italian producers, thanks to their quality positioning, have nothing to fear. Among them is Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida, who recently stated during a Senate Question Time on US tariffs that he is "confident in the resilience of premium products."

98% of Italian wine at risk

The union, chaired by Lamberto Frescobaldi, states in an official note that it considers it "dangerous to assume that our wines, being 'Italian and luxury,' are not at risk of a decline in demand from the US market." In fact, at least 80% of Italian wine is facing "a real leap into the unknown", as it forms the backbone of Italian exports to the United States, accounting for 2.9 million hectolitres out of a total of 3.6 million.

Lamberto Frescobaldi

"Premium" products in the US market

Breaking down the price categories, almost 350 million bottles of Italian wine fall into the 'popular' segment (ex-cellar price of €4.18 per litre), which, after transport, tariffs, and retail markups, results in a retail price not exceeding $13 per bottle. While it is true that "luxury" wines may be less affected by purchasing reductions, they account for only 2% of total export volume and 8% of value.

According to the UIV Observatory, the average export price of Italian wine to the US is €5.35 per litre. Among "popular" wines, 30% remain roughly in line with this (€5.26), while over half fall below the threshold (€3.53). Therefore, if additional 25% tariffs were introduced without fair management between counterparts, UIV warns that "these wines would be pushed into the next price bracket," the premium category. This would affect a significant portion of Italian wine production, including Pinot Grigio, Prosecco, Chianti, Lambrusco, Moscato d’Asti, Sicilian wines, and those from most Italian regions.

The premium segment, which accounts for 17% of total export volume (with an average ex-cellar price of €8.80 per litre and a retail price ranging from $13 to $30 per bottle), would not be able to absorb such an influx of products from the lower segment.

Italy's export to the United States by Price Point

The backbone of Italian wines is mid-range

In the US, Italian wine is worth approximately 2 billion euros, holding a 24% share of total wine exports. As Frescobaldi himself points out, Italian wine consists of "highly distinctive products that, combined with an excellent quality-price ratio, have contributed to the success of Italian-made wines." The core of this success lies primarily in mid-range positioning, with potential price fluctuations caused by tariffs exposing the market to shifts in demand.

Action on three levels

According to UIV, it is crucial to implement a "contingency plan" based on three levels: Negotiation – aiming to exclude wine from the lists of products subject to trade barriers (particularly in the case of potential European counter-tariffs). EU-Level Measures – developing compensatory and promotional initiatives. National Strategy – inevitably addressing the issue of production containment.