Italian wine may soon celebrate a festive milestone: reaching €8 billion in export value. For years, this target has been just out of reach, but 2024 could mark a turning point. Earlier analyses of July and August Istat trade data in the Tre Bicchieri weekly hinted at this possibility. Now, Nomisma Wine Monitor has provided a more definitive forecast: “Despite numerous challenges, 2024 is likely to close with over 4% growth in exports, just enough to surpass the €8 billion mark.”
However, the broader performance of Italian wine remains mixed. On the domestic front, retail sales through modern channels have fallen by 1.5% in volume during the first nine months of 2024, following a 3% decline in 2023. Recovery before year-end appears unlikely.
The persistent sparkle of Italian bubbly
By the end of Q3 2024, data from Wine Monitor shows a 2.6% decline in global wine purchases across the 12 main international markets, which account for 60% of total global wine value. Notable exceptions include Brazil and China, which saw significant growth in both value and volume, partly due to the resurgence of Australian wines previously subject to Chinese tariffs.
For Italian exports, still bottled wines saw value growth in the US and Canada, but the real driver continues to be sparkling wines. Spumanti, particularly Prosecco, posted significant gains in Australia, France, the US, Canada, and the UK. Wine Monitor highlights the dominance of Prosecco: “Two out of ten bottles of Italian wine exported now belong to this denomination.”
Tariff uncertainty and market diversification
How are Italian wine producers responding to the economic uncertainties? According to Denis Pantini, head of Wine Monitor at Nomisma, by diversifying their market reach: “Consider the looming threat of additional tariffs proposed by newly-elected President Trump for next year, which has alarmed even US importers. Meanwhile, increased excise duties on alcoholic beverages have already impacted Russia, with similar hikes planned in the UK from 1 February 2025.”
In the US, potential import tariffs could have indirect consequences for Italy’s exports to other key markets, such as Germany. Already under economic strain, Germany could see further instability, especially given Trump’s stated goal of reducing the US trade deficit, which currently totals around €80 billion in its trade with Germany.
Smaller markets on the rise
Italy is actively expanding into less traditional markets. While established destinations like Germany, Switzerland, France, and Norway have seen negative trends in 2024, smaller markets—each accounting for less than 1% of total Italian wine exports—have shown double-digit growth. “Austria, Ireland, Brazil, Romania, Croatia, Thailand, and others have emerged as bright spots, sustaining export growth amidst 2024’s uncertainties,” explains Pantini.
Vienna
Struggles in domestic retail sales
On the home front, retail wine sales continue to face challenges. According to Wine Monitor’s analysis of Nielsen-IQ data, a “timid recovery” in Q3 2024 failed to push cumulative sales for the year into positive territory. All retail formats saw volume declines, though the downturn was especially steep in e-commerce.
While sales of still and semi-sparkling wines have decreased, sparkling wines are performing well across all sales channels. However, inflationary pressures are reshaping consumer behaviour: buyers are now favouring generic, lower-cost sparkling wines over premium DOC varieties.
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