Wine prices on the US market risk reaching levels that are too high for consumers if import tariffs on European goods are increased by up to 200%. The retaliatory measure announced by US President Donald Trump, in response to Brussels' decision to impose a 50% tariff on US-made whiskey— itself a reaction to the 25% tariffs that the White House intends to introduce from April 1st—represents yet another step in a dangerous escalation, in which wine risks becoming collateral damage. Judging by the tariffs touted by Trump, many agrifood products and key denominations of the Made in Italy DOP economy could be at risk in the world's largest wine market, which in 2024 reached a value of 1.9 billion euros. If the supply chain is unable to absorb and redistribute part of these increases, prices could even triple in a short time. A prime example? Prosecco.
Prosecco at 40 euros and Pinot Grigio at 30 euros
From Veneto—the top Italian wine-exporting region in 2024, with a value of nearly 3 billion euros—come some of the most vulnerable wines, since the United States is a loyal and lucrative market for Prosecco DOP and Pinot Grigio DOP. Looking at sparkling wines first, Prosecco DOP shipments to the US in 2024 exceeded 100 million litres (106 million compared to nearly 90 million in 2023, according to Istat data), marking an 18% increase and generating over 490 million euros in revenue. A significant figure, driven in part by stockpiling by US distributors, as also noted by Ismea. The introduction of super tariffs would, of course, shatter this market.
By simulating a purchase, for instance, if you try to buy a Prosecco DOC today on Walmart’s website—the largest supermarket chain in the US—you’ll see that current prices range between $11 and $16. With the proposed tariffs, this price would rise to over $40 per 0.75-litre bottle (around €36). Pinot Grigio (which finds one of its finest expressions in the Delle Venezie DOC) would face a similar fate. Currently, in the US market, it sells for between $10 and $20 per bottle, depending on the producer. A retail price exceeding €30 would push it beyond its usual price range, making it uncompetitive.
Brunello and Chianti Classico
Tuscany is among the most vulnerable regions in the event of increased US tariffs on food and beverage products. In particular, moving to Tuscany’s great red wines, various expressions of Sangiovese, such as Chianti Classico DOP and Brunello di Montalcino DOP, are particularly exposed to the 200% tariff increases announced by President Trump in recent days.
Currently, Chianti Classico prices range from $22 to $60, depending on the winery, with higher prices for Riserva and Gran Selezione versions. Meanwhile, Brunello di Montalcino—for which the US accounts for about a third of total exports—falls within a broad price range, from €50 to €100 (or even higher for premium brands).
Tripling—or even simply doubling—these retail prices would turn these wines into collector’s items: up to €180 for Chianti Classico and up to €300 for a Brunello di Montalcino.
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