Trump’s tariffs? Italian wine could lose up to €330 million a year

Tariffs yes, tariffs no, or something in between? Amid announcements, green lights, and sudden U-turns (see the cases of Mexico and Canada), Trump’s approach seems more like a war based on the strategic (?) principle of hit wherever it lands. Europe, with its agri-food products, remains a key target, but some believe that Italy under Meloni’s leadership might receive different treatment. Either way, it’s best to be prepared. That’s why the Osservatorio Uiv has attempted to estimate how much Italy would lose if tariffs were imposed on its wine.

Wine losses of around €300 million

The Uiv simulation considers a 20% tariff on all still wines and a 10% tariff on sparkling wines—a lower rate for the latter due to pressure from the US industry, which is more reluctant to accept trade restrictions on its flagship category. Given that 2024 is expected to close with Italian wine exports to the US exceeding €1.9 billion, the projected loss would range between 13% and 17%, bringing the total value of Italian wine in the US below €1.7 billion in just one year—falling below 2021 levels. The shortfall could reach up to €330 million, although this figure could drop to €250 million if the dollar maintains its current strength.

Inflation risk

"Wine is one of the most exposed sectors of Made in Italy if tariffs are imposed on the world's largest market," commented Uiv President Lamberto Frescobaldi. "The impact on businesses will be unavoidable, as they will have to absorb most of the additional costs to remain competitive, given that the market cannot sustain them. But the damage will be twofold, as final consumers will also suffer from a resurgence of inflation knocking insistently at their doors."